Just as soon as the war against recession was apparently won along come the infamous "double-dip" fears.
If the month of June was anything to go by we at Ferguson Oliver were extremely nervous that double-dip might just be more of a possiblity than had previously been considered. That said after attending investment seminar after investment seminar it became clear that there was still a bullish air hanging around and despite all the negative news appearing on our TV screens most economists I listened to were remaining up-beat mainly in the hope and belief of strong corporate results.
July & August appear to support the bulls with a strong bounce back and numerous healthy corporate returns. So has the fear of a double dip left our shores or should we still be wary.
With a wide range of different opinions I will leave it to far brighter minds than mine to express where we sit at present.
- A recent consensus of business minds quoted the possibility of a double dip at 10%-15%.
- This morning an e-mail arrived in my inbox quoting Schroders house view as "While we expect growth to moderate, we also believe that there is now enough momentum built up to avoid a double-dip recession".
As we all know by now we cannot count anything for certain and bad news might just be lingering around the corner. There is no doubt balance sheets are strengthening and with dividend income on the rise the stronger corporate sector might just manage to help us win the next battle.
So we will watch the next phase of the recessionary curve with great expectation.
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